Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
